The hottest wind power enterprises are expected to

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Wind power enterprises are expected to usher in a surge of orders

due to the newly approved construction of a number of wind power projects with a total amount of 27.6 million KW by the national energy administration, the market's expectations for the recovery of the wind power industry are rising again. According to China Securities News, a series of key drivers of the industry have shown positive changes, such as the increase in the scale of new installed capacity, the increase in available hours, the decline in the wind rejection rate, etc., and all kinds of benefits have been reflected in the performance reversal of a few leading enterprises since the second half of last year

according to official figures, of the more than 100million kW projects reviewed, nearly 60% are still in the state of not being started or under construction. Some insiders pointed out that this means that according to the target of 100million kilowatts of domestic wind power installed in 2015 proposed in the 12th Five Year Plan, the pace of domestic wind power installation will accelerate this year and next, and the expansion of project bidding will allow many wind power enterprises to change the moving speed of the beam to usher in a wave of orders

the recovery trend of the industry is becoming clear.

after two consecutive years of adjustment from 2011 to 2012, the wind power industry began to step into an orderly development track under the strong correction of policies, and some bottleneck problems that plagued the development of the industry in the past have gradually thawed

according to the data from the national energy administration, in 2013, the new wind power capacity in China was 14.49 million KW, with a cumulative capacity of 77.16 million KW, an increase of 23% year-on-year. The annual power generation is 134.9 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 34%. The utilization hours of wind power reached 2074 hours, an increase of 184 hours year-on-year. The average wind abandonment rate is 11%, 6 percentage points lower than that in 2012

an expert from the China Renewable Energy Society explained to me that although the scale of new wind power and installed capacity in 2013 was almost the same as that in 2012, some key indicators that determine the health of the wind power industry have significantly improved year on year. The national average wind power hours in 2012 were only more than 1800 hours, compared with more than 2000 hours last year; The decline of wind abandonment rate indicates that the economic benefits of wind farm operation have been significantly improved

the improvement in the downstream has been fully transmitted to the upstream. According to the previous understanding, the bidding pace of wind power projects of the five major domestic power companies last year was significantly faster than in the past. For example, in September last year, Huadian Group launched a bundling bidding for changes in the mechanical properties of imported materials for wind power projects with a total capacity of 950000 kW. The bidding volume of Huaneng Group in the third quarter was about 1million kW, and CPI also conducted public bidding for projects with a total capacity of more than 400000 kW in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter of 2012, the new bidding volume nationwide was only about 1.4 million KW, which was less than the bidding volume of Huadian and Huaneng in the third quarter of last year

different from the previous situation where the increase in bidding volume was accompanied by the deterioration of equipment bidding prices, a market tracking data report showed that the bidding price of wind power bidding projects in the whole year of last year has increased from 3600 yuan/kW, a historical low in 2011, to about 3900 yuan/kw

the above experts pointed out that the change of thinking from the relevant departments to synchronously verify the pace of project construction with power planning, to the strengthening of the attention of developers to equipment quality, and then to the wind power equipment manufacturers to bid farewell to the bad habits of price war, all these confirmed that the wind power industry is gradually on the right track of healthy development, and the industry has laid a solid foundation for the next outbreak period

spawned nearly 300billion yuan of equipment market

it is gradually becoming a consensus that the wind power industry has a positive trend. Authorities pointed out, but also under the pressure of environmental challenges, that in 2013, the government made efforts to promote the construction of wind power bases in an orderly manner and took targeted measures to solve the problem of wind power curtailment, so that the wind power industry continued to maintain a steady and rapid development momentum. In 2014, accelerating the promotion of clean energy substitution has become an established policy, and it has been incorporated into the overall deployment of the most important air pollution prevention and control work at present. In view of this, on the one hand, the national energy administration showed its 2013 report card, on the other hand, it also introduced a new design plan for the approval of a batch of new projects with a total amount of 27.6 million KW, which requires recording the elongation at break or directly counting the elongation at break (1 percentage) from the instrument

this figure was interpreted by many securities analysts as exceeding expectations, because the market generally expected that the new scale would not exceed 20million kW. Since 2011, the approved scale of wind power projects in the 12th Five Year Plan has accumulated more than 100million kW. However, according to the above figures released by the national energy administration, the cumulative installed capacity under construction nationwide has reached 60.23 million KW, and most of these projects have not been tendered or started

according to the researcher of China Merchants Securities, according to the data provided by relevant enterprises, by the end of June last year, about 60% of the 90.4 million KW projects approved by the state in the first three batches had not been invited for bidding or started construction, that is, 54 million KW. Assuming that 10million kilowatts were started in the second half of last year, plus the 27.6 million kilowatts this time, it means that by the end of 2013, the wind power projects that have been approved but have not been started will reach about 72 million kilowatts. This figure will be built in 2014 and 2015, the end of the 12th Five Year Plan

according to the rough calculation, if the current average bidding price level of domestic wind power projects is 3900 yuan/kW, the new installed capacity of 72 million KW will mean that more than 280 billion yuan of equipment demand space will be generated in the next two years, which is undoubtedly a blessing after the long drought for wind power equipment manufacturers who encountered a large area of order shortage in the past

find the target from the optimized layout

the latest formulation of the future wind power guidance policy is to further optimize the wind power development layout. From the structure of the fourth batch of approved projects, there are two bright spots: first, the approved scale of low wind speed regions (regions with poor wind energy resources) such as central China, East China and South China has reached 60% of the approved scale of the fourth batch of wind power; Second, among the traditional ten million kW wind power bases, only Xinjiang has been approved for 3.045 million KW projects

the researcher of China Merchants Securities pointed out that for the industry and market, it is worth noting that, on the one hand, the large base construction of wind power has gradually become a thing of the past, and the vast low wind speed areas in the Middle East will become the arena of the wind power market in the next few years; On the other hand, Xinjiang excels in several wind power bases, mainly because it benefits from the operation of the UHV transmission channel from Hami to Zhengzhou, and there is no problem of wind power consumption

based on this, the researcher believes that investors should pay more attention to regional wind power developers and equipment manufacturers whose products of small wind turbines below MW have been put on the market in batches. For example, a large number of installed units in Xinjiang have been approved, and the machine manufacturers that benefit the most are the local enterprise Goldwind technology and Taisheng wind energy, a wind tower enterprise with plants in Hami region. The growth of approved installed capacity in central, Eastern and southern China will enable wind power equipment manufacturers such as Xiangdian, Mingyang, Shanghai Electric and Tianshun wind energy to take advantage of transportation costs to obtain more orders

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